000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020948
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Dec 02 2018  

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia 
at 08N78W across the Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of 
Panama at 08N83W, then continues NW to 12N98W, then turns SW TO 
08N125W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an 
ITCZ which continues W-SW to beyond 08N140W. Isolated moderate 
to strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side of a 
line from 07N85W to 10N107W to 08N120W to 10N140W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuatepec...Light to gentle, mostly onshore, flow 
forecast till late Mon night when fresh northerly drainage flow 
will develop. Strong to near gale force winds expected on Tue 
morning, and minimal gale force conditions expected on Tue 
afternoon through late Wed night. Seas are expected to build to 
14 ft downstream near 15N95.5W early Wed.

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate variable winds are 
expected across the entire gulf through Mon evening when a fresh 
NW breeze will develop across the central gulf waters and 
continue through early Tue. Gentle to moderate variable winds 
forecast across the entire gulf on Tue and Tue night. Fresh to 
locally strong southerly flow forecast N of 29.5N on Wed ahead 
of a cold front passing through the gulf waters on Wed night, 
with brief strong northerly flow NW of the front late Wed night. 
 
Elsewhere: Fresh to locally strong NW flow expected W of the 
Baja Peninsula through this evening. Long period NW swell is 
mixing with long period cross-equatorial southerly swell, 
resulting to combined seas of 6 to 9 ft elsewhere across the 
offshore Pacific waters N of 12N and W of 100W. These seas will 
gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late Mon afternoon.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Volcanic ash originating from the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala is 
dissipating inland at the moment. 

Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE winds are expected through 
Wed. A strong gap event is forecast on Wed night through Fri 
with seas building to 8 ft. 

Elsewhere: The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 11N 
through at least the middle of next week. Light to locally 
moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, is forecast N of 
the monsoon trough, with moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, 
and 4 to 6 ft seas, forecast S of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A surface high is analyzed at 32N131W with a ridge extending E 
to 11N102W. Long period NW swell is mixing with long period 
cross-equatorial southerly swell, resulting in combined seas of 
7 to 9 ft across the discussion waters between 92W and 130W. 
These seas will continue to subside from the W to less than 8 ft 
by late Mon across the waters E of 125W. 

Fresh to strong southerly winds are observed N of 28N W of 137W 
with 8 to 12 ft seas . The associated cold front will reach a 
position from 32N137W to 29N140W this evening, and from 32N134W 
to 26N140W early Mon preceded by strong SW flow N of 29N within 
180 nm E of the front. Fresh to strong westerly winds, and large 
8 to 20 ft seas are forecast W of the front in long-period NW 
swell on Mon night. The leading edge of 8 ft seas will reach 
from 32N120W to 18N140W early Wed, and from 30N116W to 10N122W 
to 03N140W early Fri.  
  
$$
Nelson