000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292139 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2139 UTC Thu Nov 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N95W to 12N100W. Another segment reaches from 12N105W to 10N120W. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 10N120W to low pressure near 09N125W to another low pressure near 08N128W. The ITCZ continues from 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection within 60 nm either side of monsoon trough and ITCZ axes between 115W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Low pressure remains centered off the coast of SW Mexico near 17.5N104W. Ship observations indicated fresh to strong winds earlier on the east side of the low pressure, close to the coast between Acapulco and Manzanillo. This appears to be diminishing as the low weakens. Seas are reaching 8 ft with an added component of NW swell near the low pressure, impacting the coastline from Guerrero to Colima. Thunderstorm activity associated with the low has been diminishing, although a few lingering showers and thunderstorms are noted near Acapulco. Large long period NW swell with seas in excess of 8 ft continues to prevail over the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula, through the Revillagigedo Islands, to the coast of Guerrero. Reinforcing swell with seas in excess of 12 ft, associated with a cold front moving across the region, will impact Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island Fri, reaching to off the norther coast of Baja California Sur by Sat. The swell will decay to below 8 ft over all but Baja California Norte by early next week. In the Gulf of California, strong west gap winds will follow the cold front into the northern Gulf late tonight into early Fri. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to start next Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE winds will pulse across the Gulf each night through Sun night. Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will remain between 08N and 11N during the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the trough, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from southern California to 24N140W. The front will continue eastward, moving east of the area Friday. Large, long period NW swell is impacting the forecast waters, with seas greater than 8 ft noted over much of the area W of 110W. Seas will peak near 18 ft over the waters N of 28N Friday before beginning to subside. Seas will subside below 8 ft over much of the forecast waters by early next week. A new set of NW swell is forecast to move into the far NW waters late Mon. $$ Christensen