000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290141 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0139 UTC Thu Nov 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to the low pressure near 15N106W to 10N120W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 10N120W to 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 13N to 16N between 101W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough and convergence zone west of 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated 1008 mb low pressure area centered near 15N106W or about 325 miles south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become less organized since yesterday, and further development of this system is not likely due to strong upper-level winds. However, shower activity associated with the disturbance is forecast to move toward southwestern Mexico through Thursday, bringing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains could result in life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong SE winds in the area of thunderstorms. A concurrent altimeter pass just to the east of the area of strong winds showed seas to 8 ft. Wave heights are possibly reaching as high as 15 ft in the area of strong winds, with the assistance of long period SW and NW swell in the area. The long period NW swell in excess of 8 ft pushed into the waters off Baja California last night, and is reaching the Revillagigedo Islands this afternoon before continuing onto toward the area off Cabo Corrientes through Thu. Seas in excess of 12 ft in NW swell will dominate the waters off Baja California into Sat as a reinforcing group of NW swell moves into the area, associated with a cold front moving into the region Thu and Fri before dissipating Sat. Seas in excess of 8 ft will linger in the open waters off Mexico north of Acapulco through Sat. In the Gulf of California, strong west gap winds will follow the cold front into the northern Gulf late Thu into early Fri. A weakening pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico is allowing winds and seas to diminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In addition, mixed swell downstream of the Gulf will subside below 8 ft overnight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE winds will pulse across the Gulf each night through Sun night. Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will remain between 08N and 11N during the rest of the week, with gentle to moderate winds on either side of the trough, with 5 to 7 ft seas expected. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh trade winds were noted in an earlier scatterometer pass north of the monsoon trough to 20N and west 135W. Recent altimeters confirm a large area of 8 to 12 ft over most the region west of 120W. This is primarily due to long period NW swell, although a component of southerly swell was evident as well in wave model initializations. A cold front entering the northwest portion of the discussion area will move across the waters north of 20N through Sat, accompanied by by a new round of long period NW swell. Fresh westerly winds will follow the front north of 28N this evening through Thu. $$ Christensen