000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... High pressure building S along the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental in Mexico today will support a gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Mon afternoon. The winds will rapidly increase to minimal gale force right after the onset of this event with seas building to 14 ft early Tue morning. Winds and seas will then gradually diminish Tue night through Wed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 10N102W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 09N111W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 09N118W to 06N123W. The ITCZ continues from 06N123W to 06N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 99W and 125W, and from 06N to 14N W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle winds are W of Baja with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Large long period NW swell will propagate well ahead of a cold front NW of the the area, and reach the waters W of Baja California Norte by Tue morning and the southern tip of Baja California Sur by Wed morning. Seas of 8 to 12 feet in NW swell associated with this frontal system will start to propagate over waters W of Baja Tue night, reaching the southern tip of Baja Thu morning. Highest seas are expected N of 26N. Elsewhere, low pres centered near 10N102W may lift out of the monsoon trough during the next couple of days and slowly drift NNW, eventually entering the waters S of Acapulco, Mexico near 14N103W by Thu night. However, fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft will start affecting the offshore waters of Guerrero, Mexico Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Enhanced infrared imagery from GOES-E continues to show intermittent plumes of volcanic ash originating from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala. The plumes track WNW and become diffuse as they cross into SW Mexico and near the coast of Chiapas. The volume of ash within these plumes remains light and does not warrant an ashfall advisory at this time. Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse over the area each night through the weekend. Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will meander between 05N and 10N during the next several days with gentle to moderate NE winds prevailing N of the trough, and gentle to moderate SW winds continuing S of the trough. Seas will hover between 4 to 6 ft in cross equatorial SW swell through Tue, then increase to between 5 and 8 ft S of 10N by midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between 1025 mb high pressure centered near 31N132W and lower pressure near the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong NE winds over the waters from 09N to 17N west of 131W. Altimeter data continue to show seas of 8 to 10 ft in this region, with seas 8 ft or greater extending as far N as 19N and as far S as 07N. Low pres centered near 09N118W is generating fresh winds in the NW semicircle of the low, with seas to 9 ft within 210 nm of the low center. The low will move W during the next couple of days with similar conditions, and open into a surface trough on Thu. Large long period NW swell associated with a strong cold front over the north central Pacific will push SE from 30N140W early on Mon, then seas will rapidly build to between 12 and 16 ft in the far NW waters by Mon night. This robust event will cause seas to build to 8 ft or higher for most of the waters W of 110W by Thu morning. $$ NR