000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N93W to 06N102W. The 
ITCZ axis continues from 06N102W to 06N120W to 08N130W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
05N to 11N between 121W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection 
is elsewhere from 02N to 15N W of 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A slightly tight pressure gradient between low pressure over 
Mexico and the Gulf of California, and surface ridging west of 
Baja California will continue to support moderate to fresh N to 
NW winds W of 112W through Sun morning when winds will diminish 
to mainly a gentle breeze. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in northwest swell 
reaching 24N will start to subside Sun morning as well. A low 
pressure system will move north of the area early next week. 
Long period swell of 16-22 seconds associated with this system 
will reach the waters of Baja California Norte Mon night and the 
southern tip of Baja California Sur by Tue night. Seas of 8 to 
13 feet in NW swell are expected west of Baja from Tue night 
through Thu.

The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast 
to begin Monday night with winds to near gale force rapidly 
increasing to minimal gale force with seas to 11 ft. Winds and 
seas will gradually diminish late Tue morning through Thu night.

Otherwise, a low pressure is likely to enter the waters of 
Guerrero, Mexico on Wed night with fresh to strong winds and 
seas to 10 ft. Winds are expected to become near gale force with 
seas to 12 ft on Thu. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Enhanced infrared imagery from GOES-E show a plume of volcanic 
ash originating from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala 
becoming diffuse as it drifts west over coastal waters. The 
intensity of the plume is light and does not warrant an ashfall 
advisory at this time. 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse until 
Tue night.

The monsoon trough will meander along 05N to 10N during the next 
few days with gentle to moderate NE winds N of the trough, and 
gentle to moderate SW winds S of the trough. Seas will be 4 to 6 
ft in cross equatorial SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between a high pressure of 1027 mb located 
near 29N138W and the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong NE 
winds covering mainly the waters from 08N to 23N W of 120W. 
Latest altimeter data continue to show 8-11 ft seas within this 
region. Similar marine conditions are expected through Sun. 
Winds area forecast to diminish to fresh late Tue and to 
moderate on Wed.

Large long period NW swell associated with a cold front in the 
north central Pacific is expected to arrive early Mon, with seas 
rapidly building to 14-18 ft in far NW waters by Mon night.

$$
Ramos