000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1954 UTC Fri Nov 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N90W to 07N98W to 06N103W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N103W to 06N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 92W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 12N between 121W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist today, becoming light and variable this evening. The next gap high wind event across the Tehuantepec region is forecast on Mon, likely reaching minimal gale force Mon evening through Tue morning. Seas are expected to build to 11-12 ft with this event. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected N of 28N, with moderate to locally fresh winds S of 28N through tonight. Winds will become mainly light and variable during the weekend. Then, expect moderate to fresh NW-N winds across the northern Gulf Mon through Tue as high pressure settles over the Great Basin of United States. High pressure building eastward across the offshore waters W of the Baja California peninsula combined with the Sonora trough will support fresh to locally strong NW winds across the waters N of 28N E of 119W this evening and tonight, and N of 27N between 115W and 117W by Sat evening, with seas to 9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... RGB products from GOES-E show a plume of volcanic ash originating from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala becoming diffuse as it drifts over the Pacific Ocean near 14N91.5W. The intensity of the plume is light and does not warrant an ashfall advisory at this time. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse until Sat evening, then diminish to near 20 kt therafter. Winds are forecast to become stronger Mon night. The monsoon trough will meander along 08N to 09N during the next few days with gentle to moderate NE winds N of the trough, and moderate to fresh SW winds S of the trough. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft in cross equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between a high pressure of 1029 mb located near 29N136W and the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong NE winds covering mainly the waters from 09N to 23N W of 122W. A recent altimeter pass provides observations of 9-13 ft seas within this area of winds. Similar marine conditions are expected through Sat. The aerial extent of these winds will slightly diminish on Sun as the high pressure weakens some. Large long period NW swell associated with a cold front in the north central Pacific is expected to arrive early Mon, with seas rapidly building to 14-18 ft in far NW waters by Mon night. $$ Formosa