000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force northerly winds will pulse across the gulf waters and as far S as 13.5N96W through Tue afternoon. Stronger drainage flow on Tue evening will result in minimal gale force conditions developing and continuing through mid morning on Wed. Seas should peak around 10 ft, nearly all as wind waves. Model guidance hints at minimal gale force again Wed night and yet again Thu night, but support is not currently as pronounced as the Tue night event. By Fri winds and seas in the Gulf will subside. Ashfall Advisory: The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over S Guatemala is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface through this evening N of 13.5N and E of 93.5W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 1 nm. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N105W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm of the trough E of 82W. The ITCZ extends fro 07N105W to 09N117W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 100W and 105W and W of 112W. The ITCZ resumes at 09N123W and extends to 09N132W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists within 120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on a developing gale in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and on an Ashfall Advisory near the coast of Guatemala N of 13.5N which may impact the far eastern Gulf of Tehuantepec zone this evening. Gulf of California: Winds will remain generally from the NW for the next several days at Moderate Breeze or weaker conditions building to Fresh by Sat. Seas will remain below 8 ft. A 1018 mb surface high is meandering near 26N119W with a ridge extending southeastward to about 20N108W. Conditions are quiescent for the next several days with winds remaining Moderate Breeze or weaker building to NW Fresh by Fri and Sat. Long-period NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will arrive at 30N120W late Thu night, and impact the northern coast of the Baja Peninsula early Fri through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an Ashfall Advisory near the coast of Guatemala N of 13.5N. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally Strong Breeze NE winds, with seas building briefly to 8 ft are expected to pulse through the week, diminishing to moderate to fresh Fri night and Sat. Light to locally Moderate Breeze northerly flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and Moderate Breeze southwesterly monsoonal flow is forecast S of the monsoon trough through Sat. Seas should remain below 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1010 mb surface low is analyzed at 09N135W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 180 nm of the low's center. The eastern trough extends from 08N119W to 14N119W, while the western trough extends from 11N125W to 17N119W. The low and troughs will continue W accompanied by Fresh Breeze E winds and seas to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front extends from 1010 mb low pressure just N of the area near 32N129W through 30N126W to 25N129W to 22N135W. While strongest S winds ahead of the front and NW winds behind the front are new Fresh Breeze this morning, peak seas behind the front are near 11 ft, as observed by ships WNRD and KRGB. The associated NW swell will subside to less than 8 ft by early Tue. Another cold front is forecast to breach 30N140W by Tue afternoon with a new set of NW swell in its wake. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft, highest along and N of 30N. A ridge will set up from 29N140W to 18N106W on Wed night with strong NE trades, and seas of 8 to 11 ft forecast from roughly 10N to 22N W of 125W on Thu. These winds waves will commingle with the NW swell and cover much of the high seas area through Sat. $$ Landsea