000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Nov 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. .SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force northerly winds will pulse across the gulf waters and as far S as 13.5N96W through late Tue. Stronger drainage flow on Tue evening will result in minimal gale force conditions developing and continuing through mid morning on Wed. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends SW off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 07N78W across the southern Gulf of Panama then turns NW to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then turns SW again to 07N101W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues NW interrupted by a 1011 mb surface low at 10N122W. The monsoon trough then wiggles W to another 1011 mb low pres at 09N133W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 03N E of 79W, within 150 nm either side of a line from 10N116W to 07N123W, and within 75 nm 09N132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Feature section for Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds currently observed will become a moderate NW breeze briefly on Mon morning, then the pressure gradient will relax with light NW flow forecast through Wed, except light and variable winds expected over the northern waters as a weak front passes. A 1018 mb surface high is meandering near 26N120W with a ridge extending across the Mexican offshore waters W of 97W, with gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow forecast around the meandering ridge through the middle of the week, except a weak cold front will shift E across the waters N of 28N on Wed accompanied by a light and variable wind shift. Long-period NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will arrive at 30N120W late Thu, and reach the northern coast of the Baja Peninsula early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh to locally strong NE winds, with seas building briefly to 8 ft well downstream near 10.5N87W, are expected this week. The strong winds will extend as far SW as 10.5N88.5W. Light to locally moderate northerly flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed at 10N122W and another is analyzed at 09N133W. These lows will continue W accompanied by fresh E wind and seas to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front extends from 32N128W to 22N138W accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift, and 7 to 10 ft seas W of the front in long-period NW swell. Although the front will weaken, it will reach the Baja Peninsula on Wed evening. The associated NW swell will subside to less than 8 ft on Mon night. A second cold front will move into the area on Mon followed briefly by NW swell, in the form of 6 to 8 ft seas. A tightening pressure gradient will result in strong W winds N of 30N between 125W and 140W on Tue night into Wed. A ridge will set up from 29N140W to 18N106W on Wed night with strong NE trades, and seas to 11 ft, forecast from 11N to 22N W of 127W on Thu, surrounded by NW swell resulting in 7-9 ft seas across the waters elsewhere N of the ITCZ W of 120W. $$ Nelson