000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160929 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0929 UTC Fri Nov 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds extending as far S as 13.5N96W, accompanied by seas to 17 ft, will gradually diminish through late Sat morning. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through early next week, with still a possibility of minimal gale conditions during the late night and early morning hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis from 03N137W to 14N135W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 132W and 140W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia from 07N78W to 08N86W to 06N97W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 06N97W to 06N110W to 08N125W to 09N134W, then resumes from 09N137W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05.5N to 08N between 90W and 98W, from 07N to 10N between 99W and 101W, from 06N to 09N between 103W and 107W, and also from 10N to 15N between 119W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Gulf of California: Moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are expected across the entire gulf waters this morning into the afternoon. Light N winds are forecast by this coming evening, and light and variable winds are expected by late Sat. Moderate NW winds will develop across the entire gulf waters on Sun night, becoming a fresh breeze over the northern waters on Mon into Tue. A NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters W of 104W with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Fonseca: Fresh to strong northerly winds are diminishing. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse through the next several days with the strongest winds expected during the late night into the early morning hours. Seas will fluctuate around 8 ft during the strongest winds. Northerly swells from a Gulf of Tehunatepec gap event will propagate SE into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through this coming evening. Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for swell propagating W from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge is meandering from 32N136W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of the ITCZ west of 128W, and from 10N to 16N between 118W and 128W. These conditions are forecast to shift westward and slowly diminish and subside through Sat. A cold front will reach 30N140W by early Sat, accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift and 7 to 10 ft seas. The front will wash out between 125W and 130W early next week. Another round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W late Tue as the next cold front enters the area. $$ Lewitsky