000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142229 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm force winds extending as far S as 14N95W will persist through late tonight with winds to 40 kt then persisting through sunrise on Fri. Gale conditions should end around sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through Tue night. Max seas of 22 ft are forecast well downstream near 13.5N96W while seas 8 ft or greater, primarily due to the NE swell mixing with cross-equatorial SW swell, are forecast to spread out across the waters from 03S and 14N between 90W and 113W by late Fri. These seas should diminish below 8 ft on Sun night, but continue across and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave has its axis from 04.5N129W to 16N128.5W, moving westward at 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N within 240 nm of the wave axis. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W-SW off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 10N75W across the northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N83W, then continues W-SW to 07N95W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues SW to 06N102W, then turns NW to 10N122W, then W through a weakening tropical wave at 10N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of a line from 10N76W to 06N86W, within 90 nm of 09N98W and 09N118W, and within 120 nm either side of a line from 10N122W to 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec storm event. Gulf of California: Strong N winds, with seas to 7 ft, are expected N of 30N through tonight. Fresh N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas expected elsewhere tonight with a moderate NW breeze, and 1 to 3 ft seas, are forecast across the entire gulf on Thu afternoon through Thu night. A NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican waters W of 104W with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast tonight through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Strong NE winds, with seas building to 10 ft downstream near 10N87W, are expected through Fri morning. Northerly swells from a Gulf of Tehunatepec gap event will propagate into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Thu morning. Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for swell propagating outward from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge is meandering from 32N135W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of the ITCZ west of 110W. These conditions are forecast to shift westward and slowly diminish through Thu. A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W late Fri night accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift and 7 to 9 ft seas. $$ Nelson