000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure in the 
Gulf of Mexico is producing storm force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, expected to continue for about another 24 hours. 
Max seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will build to 20-
22 ft later today. Gale force winds will persist until early Sat 
morning, then pulse again Sun night. A large swath of high seas 
from this event will propagate south and southwest of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas 
forecast to reach near 108W by Fri.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed from 15N125W to 05N127W, moving west 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection associated with the 
wave is noted from 09N to 10N between 124W and 128W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 08N78W to 
07N97W to 09N110W to 08N116W. The ITCZ continues from 08N116W to 
08N125W, then resumes from 08N128W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N E 
of 85W, and from 06N to 10N between 125W and 139W.

 ...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec storm event.

Strong high pressure over the SW United States and Mexico will 
support fresh to locally strong northerly winds over the Gulf of 
California through this morning. Fresh to strong NE winds and 
seas of 8 to 9 ft will continue west of Baja California N of 
Cabo San Lazaro this morning, then subside by this evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will increase 
late tonight as a tight pressure gradient develops over northern 
Central America behind a strong cold front that will move into 
the NW Caribbean. Seas will build to 9 ft Thu morning. This gap 
wind event is expected to continue through the weekend.

A strong Tehunatepec gap wind event west of the area is forecast 
to spread strong winds and high seas of 12-18 ft into Guatemala 
and El Salvador offshore waters west of 92W through Thu morning.

Cross-equatorial long period SW swell will maintain seas around 
6-7 ft from Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands to near the Azuero 
Peninsula through Wed.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

High pressure centered W of California near 35N130W ridges SE to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between 
the high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will 
support fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ west of 125W, with 
seas of 8-10 ft. These conditions are forecast to shift westward 
and slowly diminish through Thu. 

NW swell associated with a dissipating stationary front NW of 
the area is producing 7-9 ft seas over NW waters. By early Thu, 
this swell merges with wind waves generated by the area of fresh 
to strong trades. Model guidance shows a cold front approaching 
the far NW corner of the area on Fri.

Cross equatorial SW swell of 7-8 ft is south of 03N between 105W 
and 120W. This area of seas will retreat southward into tonight.

$$
Mundell