000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111551 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1546 UTC Sun Nov 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec: minimal gale force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 13 ft will diminish below gale force late this morning, then further diminish to 20 kt or less by early Mon morning. Looking ahead, model guidance continues to suggest an upcoming storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This will be associated with a strong cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to first reach minimal gale force by late Tue morning, then quickly increase to 40 to 45 kt by early Tue afternoon as strong high pressure builds over NE Mexico and the Mexican coastal plains. A very tight pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehunatepec is forecast to support these very strong winds, which are forecast to reach minimal storm force (48 to 50 kt) by early Tue evening. Seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to build up to 20 to 24 ft by Tue night. Storm force winds are likely to persist through Wed evening, with gale force winds likely lasting through Fri morning. Along west coast of Baja Peninsula: Strong high pressure building across the SW United States and northern Mexico will bring strong to near gale force northerly winds over the Gulf of California. These winds will funnel through mountain passages across north- central Baja California to produce gale force NE winds within 60 nm of the west coast of Baja California between about 28N-30N starting Mon evening and prevailing through Tue morning. Seas of 8 to 10 ft and NE winds to 30 kt can be expected over the waters within about 180 nm SW of this gale Mon night through Tue evening. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends from 19N108W to 08N110W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of a line from 14N104W to 10N114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 05N76W to a 1010 mb low pressure area centered near 08N114W to 09N121W. The ITCZ extends from 09N131W to beyond 07N140W. A surface trough is in the gap between the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with an axis extending from 19N121W to 08N124W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 120W and 129W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 10N between 129W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on ongoing and upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind events. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure will build again N the area tonight and Mon, resulting in fresh to near gale force winds N of 30N beginning late this evening. These winds will spread S across the entire length of the Gulf of California and across the waters between Las Marias Islands and Los Cabos by Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 8-10 ft before starting to subside Tue morning as the ridge slightly shifts eastward. Please refer to the special features section for details on the gale developing W of Baja California early this week. Mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft currently prevail over the offshore waters W of Baja California and the Mexico offshore waters N of 17N. These benign conditions will prevail offshore Mexico between 17N and 23N the next several days. By Wed morning, expect gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft to return offshore Baja California, persisting through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon morning, with moderate to fresh winds thereafter. Winds will increase back to fresh to strong by Wed night as a tight pressure gradient develops over northern Central America behind a strong cold front moving into the NW Caribbean. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft by early Thu morning. A strong Tehunatepec gap wind event W of the area is forecast to spread strong to near gale force winds and building seas of 12 to 20 ft into the far SW portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, particularly W of 93W, Tue night through Wed. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are forecast N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate SW winds S of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Cross equatorial long period SW swell will keep seas in the 6 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands as far north as 06N through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered west of California has an axis that extends SE across the forecast waters to near 22N113W supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten Mon night into Tue morning resulting in fresh to locally strong trades just N of the ITCZ. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will be associated with these winds covering roughly the waters from 10N to 16N W of 120W by Tue. A cold front will attempt to approach 30N140W the next few days, but will stall and weaken just NW of the area. A set of NW swell associated with this front is forecast to cross 30N140W by early Wed, with seas of 8-10 ft covering much of the waters N of 10N W of 130W by early Thu. Cross equatorial swell of 7 to 9 ft will spread N to 07N between 100W and 120W Mon through Tue night. $$ Latto