000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070853
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Wed Nov 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 09N100W to 
06.5N105W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N105W to 06N117W to beyond 
11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 11N to 16N between 103W and 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The latest scatterometer pass was well placed to observe the wind
field associated with remnant low of Tropical Storm Xavier, which
was near 18.5N111W. Fresh to strong winds continue within 60 nm
of the northern semicircle of the low. These winds are expected 
to continue today before diminishing to 20 kt or less later 
tonight. 

A ridge extending from 1026 mb high pressure near 39N136W to 
offshore of Baja California Sur near 22N111W will dominate the 
area the next several days. A light to gentle anticyclonic flow 
around this ridge will prevail west of the Baja California 
Peninsula, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. 

Gulf of California: High pressure will build over the Great 
Basin region later this week and induce fresh to strong northerly
winds over the northern Gulf early Fri through Sat morning.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front will shift across the Gulf of
Mexico later this week. The cold front is currently forecast to 
reach the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. This will help usher 
in the next gap wind event across Tehuantepec. Winds are 
forecast to increase to near gale force late Saturday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate southwest monsoon flow is expected south of 
the monsoon trough today before diminishing. Long period SW swell
will impact the waters off Panama and Costa Rica today, before 
subsiding late Thu. Another round of cross equatorial SW swell is
expected to move into the region Fri afternoon, and last though 
the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail N of the ITCZ and west 
of 120W, while gentle to moderate SE flow is noted south of the 
ITCZ. A new pulse of northerly swell has propagated into the 
northern waters, with seas to 8 ft N of 29N between 122W and 
130W. Seas over this area will slowly subside over the next 24 
hours.


$$
AL