000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062210
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The remnant low of Tropical Storm Xavier remains a well defined 
low level cloud swirl located near 19N109.5W at 1800 UTC , 
moving westward at 8 kt. Minimal gale force winds occurring 
across the northern semicircle of this low earlier this morning 
have diminished this afternoon to around 25 kt. Winds are 
expected to continue near 25 kt through tonight and Wed morning 
before subsiding to 20 kt or less by late Wed Afternoon. This 
remnant low is expected to move across Isla Socorro in the next 
several hours and then across Las Islas Revillagigedo this 
evening, bringing numerous showers and squalls.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N74W to 09N85W to low pres 
near 085N97W to 06.5N109W. The ITCZ extends from 11N112W to 
beyond 10.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted 
within 180 nm S of the trough between 80W and 89W, and also 
within 270 nm across the N semicircle of low pres near 15N119.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see special features section above for more on gales
associated to the remnant low of Tropical Storm Xavier.

A ridge extending from 1026 mb high pressure near 40N137W to 
offshore of Baja California Sur near 22N116W will continue to 
dominate the area the next several days. A light to gentle 
anticyclonic flow around this ridge will prevail west of the 
Baja California Peninsula, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell 
expected. 

Gulf of California: Variable, mainly gentle southerly winds are 
expected across most of the Gulf through late Thu. Strong high 
pressure will build over the Great Basin region later this week 
and induce fresh to strong northerly winds over the northern 
Gulf early Fri through Sat morning.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front will shift across the Gulf of
Mexico later this week. The cold front is currently forecast to 
reach the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. This will help usher 
in the next gap wind event across Tehuantepec. Winds are 
forecast to build to near gale force late Saturday, with the 
possibility of reaching minimal gale force Saturday night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate southwest monsoon flow is expected south of 
the monsoon trough through the middle of the week before
diminishing. Long period SW swell will push north of the equator 
into the waters off Panama and Costa Rica tonight into Wed, 
before fading late Thu. Another round of cross equatorial SW 
swell is expected to move into the region Fri afternoon and 
evening and last though the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ and west 
of 130W, while moderate southeasterly flow is noted south of the 
ITCZ. Seas 8 to 9 ft, in N to NE swell, are noted over the 
waters NW of a line from 30N121W TO 28.5N124W TO 30N131W. Seas 
over this area will begin to subside late tonight. A new pulse 
of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters 
Wednesday, with seas building to 8 ft N of 28N between 120W and 
131W.

$$
Stripling