000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Xavier centered near 19.0N 106.9W at 05/2100 UTC moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Xavier's deep convection dissipated around 1500 UTC, leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with isolated showers within 120 nm N semicircle and 45 nm S semicircle of the low center. Seas are estimated to be as high as 14 ft within 60 nm N semicircle and 30 nm S semicircle of the storm. Swells generated from Xavier will continue to impact portions of the adjacent coastline of Mexico through Wed, bringing dangerous surf and rip currents to these areas. Xavier's center will continue moving farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to low pres near 08N95W to low pres near 14N118W to 11N124W. The ITCZ begins near 11N124W and continues to 10N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N E of 96W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on Tropical Storm Xavier. A ridge extending from 1029 mb high pressure near 37N141W to just west of Baja California Sur will continue to dominate the area the next several days, producing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow. Outside of the areas impacted by Xavier, gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Sat morning with winds increasing to near gale force in the afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 10 ft. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure will build N of the gulf Thu night. This will result in fresh to strong northerly winds N of 29N with seas to 6 ft through Sat morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Looking ahead, long period SW swell will push north of the equator by late Tue into the waters off Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of Tropical Storm Xavier, two other weak centers of low pressure are embedded within the monsoon trough. One of these is centered near 08N95W, and the other near 14N118W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas reaching 7 ft are expected with these low pressure areas. Elsewhere scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ and west of 130W, while moderate southeasterly flow is noted south of the ITCZ. Seas to 9 ft, in N to NE swell are over the waters N of 24N west of 122W. Seas over this area will begin to subside Tuesday. A new set of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Wednesday, with seas to 8 ft N of 28N between 120W and 131W. $$ Ramos