000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 055 UTC Sun Nov 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Xavier centered near 16.1N 105.7W at 04/0300 UTC moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Southwest to west shear continues to influence Xavier, keeping scattered moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the northeast semicircle of the storm. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 19N between 102W and 106W. Seas over the offshore waters off SW Mexico will build as high as 20 ft in the area of maximum winds. Swells generated from Xavier will impact portions of SW Mexico through early next week, bringing dangerous surf and rip currents to these areas. Please consult products from your local weather office. Heavy rainfall is possible over Jalisco and the Cabo Corrientes area into Mon as the system makes its closest point of approach. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N86W to 09N94W to 13N101W. Another segment reaches from west of Xavier near 13N110W to low pres near 12N119W to low pres near 10N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 81W and 86W, and from 09N to 12N between 115W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on Tropical Storm Xavier, which will impact the waters off SW Mexico this weekend into early next week. A ridge extending from 1032 mb high pressure near 36N138W to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands will continue to dominate the area through remainder of the weekend, producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Outside of the areas impacted by Xavier, moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere over the open waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of Tropical Storm Xavier, two other weak centers of low pressure are embedded within the monsoon trough. One of these is centered near 12N119W, and the other near 10N134W. Recent scatterometer data shows trade winds remain fairly weak between the low pressure centers and the subtropical ridge north of 20N. Moderate southerly flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, with 5 to 7 ft seas everywhere west of 120W in mixed swell. Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters tonight, which will build seas to 8 ft over the waters N of 28N between 125W and 130W. The swell will continue to spread SW, with seas of 7 to 8 ft covering the waters N of 25N and W of 125W Sun night. $$ AL