000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010312 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Nov 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Model guidance indicates a broad, disorganized area of low pressure south of Cabo Corrientes will consolidate during the next two days into an organized low pressure system, which will be in an area conducive for tropical cyclone development. The potential for this disturbance to become a tropical depression during the next two days as medium, and high during the 2-5 day time frame. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP and ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 11N85W to 09N101W to low pressure near 10N109W to low pressure near 11N118W to low pressure near 09N128W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 107W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A frontal trough will shift SE and weaken tonight. Northerly winds and seas to 8 ft will diminish by early Thu as the feature dissipates. Moderate NW winds are expected Thu night through Fri night, with light NW flow this weekend. High pressure centered near 37N135W extends a broad ridge N of 18N to the Baja California peninsula. Gentle northerly winds and 6-9 ft seas in NW swell prevail across the waters N of 25N W of Baja. Seas will gradually subside to 4-7 ft by late Thu. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere in the offshore waters W of 100W. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance indicates the next gap wind event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, quickly reaching near gale conditions, with a good chance of minimal gale force winds into early Sat. Northerly winds will then remain strong through Sat evening. Downstream seas could build as high as 12-15 ft by early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will increase again by Sun night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough, while moderate to fresh southwesterly flow is expected south of its axis through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Multiple weak cyclonic circulations are evident along the monsoon trough axis. A low pressure area within the trough is forecast to develop this weekend near 110W as conditions become favorable for intensification. See Special Features section. A broad area of low pressure analyzed near 09N128W lacks organized convection, but will continue moving slowly westward with moderately favorable conditions for some strengthening through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are forecast N and NW of the low center through Thu night, then diminish on Friday. Long period northerly swell covers much of the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh northerly winds are also found roughly N of 29N between 123W and 126W. These winds will diminish overnight. $$ Mundell