000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 09N78W across the northern Gulf of Panama and northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W, then continues westward through embedded surface lows at 11N107W and 09N119W to 09N127W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of A line from 05N77W to 07N84W, from 07N to 16N between 93W and 105W, and elsewhere within 120 nm either side of a line from 13N111W to 09N124W to 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extending SE from 22.5N116W to 15N100W will shift slightly SW during the next few days as a weak trough meanders E and W across the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh NW winds, and 7 to 11 ft seas, are forecast to spread SE across the waters N of 25N W of the Baja Peninsula through Tue night. Winds and seas will then diminish and subside with gentle northerly winds then expected through the upcoming weekend, except becoming briefly moderate within 60 nm of the northern and central Baja coast. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W. Gulf of California: A fresh to locally strong southerly breeze will develop across the waters N of 30N and to the S of a surface low expected near 31N115W overnight. The low will shift E of the area on Tue night, dragging a cold front S across the northern gulf waters followed by strong northerly winds N of 30N on Wed. Fresh NW winds are forecast across the entire gulf waters on Wed night into Thu, and moderate NW winds forecast on Thu night through Fri night. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong to near gale force northerly drainage flow is expected across and downstream of the gulf waters to along 13.5N through early Tue morning. The associated N-NE swell, in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, extends as far S as along 12N between 96W and 98W. Expect winds to diminish to 20 kt or less and seas to subside to less than 8 ft by early Tue night. Model guidance suggests that the next strong to near gale force gap event will begin on Fri night with hints of minimal gale conditions on Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh NE flow is forecast to gradually diminish through early Tue. Light to gentle variable winds, and 3 to 6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough this week, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad are of low pressure is analyzed as a 1009 mb surface low embedded within the monsoon trough at 11N109W accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 60 nm over the NE quadrant and within 240 nm over the NW semicircle of the low center. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are forecast within 30 nm of the low tonight as it continues westward with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 3 to 5 days. A 1009 mb low pressure center is centered near 09N120W. The low will track westward for a few days accompanied by fresh winds and seas to 8 ft, with a low chance of tropical cyclone development. Long period NW swell, in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, currently W of a line from 32N120W to 16N140W, will continue to propagate E across the discussion area reaching a line from the northern Baja Peninsula to 10N137W overnight. These swells will subside with seas forecast to less than 8 ft on Thu. In addition, a surge of strong northerly winds accompanied by 9 to 13 ft seas, will move into the waters N of 29.5N between 120W and 127W through late Tue before diminishing. The northerly winds will gradually diminish through late Tue night, with the NW swells subsiding and seas forecast less than 8 ft late Wed night. $$ Nelson