000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1007 mb surface low is embedded within the monsoon trough at 10N105W accompanied by numerous moderate convection within 180 nm southeast quadrant and scattered moderate convection elsewhere within 150 nm of low center. Scatterometer data showed winds of 20 to 25 kt within 210 nm east semicircle of the low center. Seas are to 8 ft. The low is forecast to track westward the next couple of days along with fresh winds and seas to 8 ft. However, there is still a medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next 2 to 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the coast of Colombia near 08N78W to 09N84W to an embedded surface low at 10N105W and another low at 09N117W to 08N126W. Scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ begins at 08N126W and continues W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough east of 100W, between 108W and 113W, and from 06N to 12N west of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will meander from 22N116W to 15N98W through early Mon providing light to gentle NW flow over the offshores of Baja. The pressure gradient will tighten on Mon afternoon with fresh NW winds, and 8 to 11 ft seas, arriving at 30N120W. Moderate NW flow, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are forecast N of 24N through Tue night. Winds and seas will then diminish and subside with gentle NW winds becoming occasionally moderate within 60 nm of the central Baja coast, and 4 to 6 ft seas, forecast west of the mainland Mexico by Thu and then continuing through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds will become a moderate southerly breeze across the waters N of 30N late Mon. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds expected N of 30N on Tue night, then increasing to a strong breeze on Wed. Fresh NW winds forecast across the entire gulf waters on Thu and Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong to near gale force northerly drainage flow expected across and downstream of the gulf waters to along 14N through late Tue morning. The associated N-NE swell, in the form of 8 ft seas, will reach along 12N between 94W and 98W today. A maximum of 10 ft seas are expected N of 13N during the gap wind event. Model guidance suggests that the next strong to near gale force gap event will begin on Fri evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh to locally strong NE flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, is forecast through late Mon with these conditions expected to reach as far downstream as 10N87W. Light to gentle variable winds, and 3 to 6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough this week, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the special features paragraph concerning a surface low near 10N105W. A 1008 mb low pressure center is centered near 09N116W. The low will track westward for a few days accompanied by fresh winds and seas up to 8 ft. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development associated with this low. A dissipating stationary front across the far NW waters will lose identity today. However, associated NW swell, in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, will propagate E across the discussion area reaching a line from 32N118W to 12N135W late Mon and a line from 32N116W to 12N140W late on Tue. The NW swell and associated seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft late Wed night. $$ Ramos