000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280408
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0315 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from coastal sections of Costa Rica 
near 09N84W to a 1008 mb low pressure center near 11N100W to a 
1008 mb low pressure center near 08N114W to 09N123W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N123W to 08N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 07N to 13N east of 96W, from 06N to 
11N between 104W and 112W, and from 05N to 14N west of 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging will prevail across the offshore waters through 
Friday next week. The ridge is forecast to support gentle to 
light NW wind flow west of Baja California through Monday 
afternoon. NW swell in excess of 8 feet will move southward 
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters starting Monday 
night and prevailing through Wednesday night. Moderate NW winds 
area expected during this period in the waters of Baja 
California Norte as the pressure gradient tightens between the 
ridge and a surface trough that will develop along the 
peninsula.

Gulf of Tehuantepec...Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in 
the gulf through Tue morning due to strong high pressure over 
the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are forecast to build up to 10 feet 
during this period. The ridge will shift ENE afterwards, thus 
resulting in the end of the gap wind event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail 
across and downstream of the gulf through Wednesday with seas 
building to 7 ft.

Gentle to moderate SW winds will increase to fresh to strong 
over a portion of the Colombian offshore waters Sun afternoon. 
Seas in this region are expected to build to 7 ft. Winds will 
decrease to moderate to fresh off Colombia by Sunday night. 
Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere with 4-6 
ft seas.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

The surface pressure gradient between high pressure north of 20N 
and the ITCZ, is supporting a swath of fresh trade winds from 
15N to 18N west of 137W with seas to 8 feet. NW swell associated 
with a weak cold front N of the area will move across the NW 
waters today through Monday, reaching Baja California Norte 
through the middle of the week. Sea heights will be in the range 
of 8 to 11 feet.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 11N101W. This low pressure 
center is expected to move W during the next several days with 
fresh to strong winds and associated seas. There is a medium 
chance this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next 
five days. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 08N114W. The 
low is forecast to support fresh to strong winds and associated 
seas during the next few days. 

$$
NR