000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272202
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Oct 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Costa 
Rica near 09N84W, to 11N94W, to a 1008 mb low pressure center 
that is near 11N100W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is 
near 08N114W, to 09N124W. The ITCZ continues from 09N124W, to 
09N130W, beyond 08N140W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of the 
monsoon trough between 84W and 98W.  Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 126W and 
130W, and within 90 nm S of the ITCZ from 135W westward. Warming 
cloud top temperatures and possibly lingering rainshowers are 
from 05N northward from 81W eastward, and from 06N to 12N 
between 110W and 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge extends SE, from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is 
near 32N131W, to 26N126W, and to 20N119W. The ridge will prevail 
across the offshore waters through the middle of the next week.
The ridge is expected to support gentle to moderate NW wind flow 
to the west of Baja California. NW swell in excess of 8 feet 
will move southward, reaching the area that is near Guadalupe 
Island on Monday evening, and then as far to the south as 23N 
west of 115W by Tuesday night.

The Gulf of Tehuantepec...The next strong gap wind event will 
start tonight, with fresh to strong winds. The wind speeds will 
increase, to strong/near gale-force tonight with seas building 
to 11 feet by Sunday afternoon. Strong surface high pressure 
that is to the north of the area will shift to the ENE on 
Tuesday afternoon, thus resulting in the end of the gap wind 
event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate NE winds will prevail across and 
downstream of the Gulf through tonight, becoming fresh to strong 
from Sunday afternoon through late Monday.

Light and variable winds with 4-6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere 
to the north of the monsoon trough through Monday. Moderate 
southwesterly monsoonal flow with sea heights of 5 to 7 feet,
are expected to the south of the monsoon trough. 
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

The surface pressure gradient that exists between high pressure 
that is to the north of the area, and the ITCZ, is producing a 
swath of fresh trade winds from 15N to 17N west of 137W with 
seas to 8 feet. A weak cold front NW of the area is expected to 
dissipate on Sunday. Associated NW swell will move into the NW 
waters early on Sunday, just ahead of the front. Expect sea 
heights to be in the range of 8 to 10 feet to the NW of a line 
from 30N136W to 26N140W on Sunday morning, and to 30N130W 
22N140W by Sunday night.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 11N100W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the 
center in the N semicircle. This low pressure center is expected 
to move W during the next several days, reaching 11N105W by 
Sunday night. The low pressure center is forecast to open into a 
trough late on Tuesday, as it moves W-NW. The low pressure 
center will support fresh winds within 180 nm of the center. 
Long period SW swell will interact with the local wind waves in 
order to produce combined seas to 8 feet near the low pressure 
center through early next week.
 
A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 08N114W. Scattered 
moderate to strong rainshowers are within 60 nm of the low 
center in the SE quadrant. Seas to 8 feet are from 05N to 07N 
between 103W and 108W, now, and subsiding to less than 8 feet
on Sunday morning.

$$
mt