000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270359 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1008 mb low pressure near 10N98W to 1009 mb low pressure near 08N111W to 12N122W to 09N130W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 09N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 83W and 91W, and from 08N to 11N W of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extending SE from a 1022 mb high near 33N131W to 24N123W to NW of the Revillagigedo Islands near 20N114W will prevail across the offshore waters through the middle of next week, and is expected to support gentle to moderate NW flow west of Baja California. NW swell in excess of 8 ft will move southward, reaching the area around Guadalupe Island Mon evening, then as far south as 24N west of 115W by late Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Model guidance suggests the next strong gap wind event will begin Saturday morning with fresh to strong winds. Winds are forecast to further increase to near gale-force Sat night with seas building to 10 ft. Strong high pressure north of the area will shift to the east-northeast Tue afternoon, which will result in the end of the gap wind event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate NE winds will prevail across and downstream of the Gulf through Sat night, becoming fresh to strong Sun through late Mon. Light and variable winds with 4-6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through Mon. Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow with 5-7 ft seas, are expected south of the trough axis. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between high pressure north of the area and the ITCZ is producing a swath of fresh trade winds from 15N to 18N west of 135W. Mixed swell will maintain a large area of 7-8 ft seas north of the ITCZ west of 130W through Sat. A cold front NW of the area is expected to dissipate Saturday. However, associated NW swell will move into the NW waters early Sun just ahead of the front and raise seas to 8-10 ft NW of a line from 30N129W to 21N140W Sun night. A surface trough extends from 17N122W to 11N123W. Fresh to strong winds with seas to 8 ft are in the NW area of the trough axis from 14N to 17N between 120W and 125W. A 1008 mb surface low analyzed along the monsoon trough near 10N98W is expected to move W over the next several days, reaching 11N105W by late Sun night. The low pressure will open into a trough thereafter as it moves W-NW. The low pressure will support fresh winds within 180 nm of the center. Long period SW swell will interact with the local wind waves to produce combined seas to 8 ft near the low pressure through early next week. $$ Ramos