000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262126 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2126 UTC Fri Oct 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N98W to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N111W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N123W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from the low pressure near 13N123W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 97W and 100W, and from 13N to 15N between 121W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extending SE from 1025 mb to 32N132W to the Revillagigedo Islands will prevail across the offshore waters through the weekend, and is expected to support gentle to moderate NW flow west of Baja California through early Sat. NW swell in excess of 8 ft will move southward, reaching the area around Guadalupe Island Mon, then as far south as 22N west of 114W by late Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Model guidance suggests the next strong gap wind event will night into Tue morning, with seas building to 11-12 ft downstream of the gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate NE winds will prevail across and downstream of the Gulf through Sat night, becoming fresh to strong Sun through late Mon. Light and variable winds with 4-6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through Mon. Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow with 5-7 ft seas, are expected south of the trough axis. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between high pressure north of the area and the ITCZ is producing a swath of fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 125W. Mixed swell will maintain a large area of 7-8 ft seas north of the ITCZ west of 130W through Sat. Farther north, a cold front NW of the area is expected to reach 30N140W Sun morning, then dissipate over the far NW waters. Associated NW swell will move into the NW waters early Sun just ahead of the front and raise seas to 8-10 ft NW of a line from 30N133W to 21N140W Sun afternoon. Strong high pressure behind the front will induce the strong winds and building seas west of Baja California. A recent scatterometer pass indicated 20 to 25 kt winds within 135 nm of the center of the 1011 mb low near 13N123W in the northern semicircle. Seas are likely 6 to 8 ft in the area of strong winds. The low will along the monsoon trough will move W-SW the next few days, and weaken before dissipating Sat into Sun. A 1011 mb surface low analyzed along the monsoon trough near 10N98W is expected to move W over the next several days, reaching 12N107W by early Mon. The low pressure will open into a trough thereafter as it moves W-NW. The low pressure will support fresh winds within 120 nm of the center. Long period SW swell will interact with the local wind waves to produce combined seas to 8 ft near the low pressure through early next week. The long period SW will propagate into the waters mainly south of 08N between 100W and 110W in Sun before decaying below 8 ft. $$ Christensen