000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N-14N along 100W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are flaring along the monsoon trough near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to a 1011 mb low pres near 09N96W to 07N109W to 1011 mb low pres near 13N 120W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N126W. The ITCZ extends from 09N 130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 45 nm either side of the axis between 89W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 122W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extending SE from 28N127W to the Revillagigedo Islands will prevail across the offshore waters through the weekend, and is expected to support gentle to moderate NW flow west of Baja California through Fri night. Strong N to NE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas will spread into the waters N of 30N and W of 118W on Sun, with associated NW swell raising seas across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte to 8-9 ft by late Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Model guidance suggests the next strong gap wind event will begin on Sat, with near gale conditions possible Sat evening through Tue morning, with seas building to 11-12 ft downstream of the gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate NE winds will prevail across and downstream of the Gulf through Sat night, becoming fresh to strong on Sun, and continue through late Mon. Light and variable winds with 3-6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through Mon. Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow with 5-7 ft seas, are expected south of the trough axis. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure over the far NW waters near 31N131W is forecast to shift NE then lift N of 32N through Fri. The gradient between the high and the ITCZ is producing a band of fresh trade winds from 10N to 24N west of 125W. Mixed swell will maintain a large area of 7-8 ft seas north of the ITCZ west of 130W through Sat. A 1011 mb low near 13N120W along the monsoon trough will move WSW the next few days, and weaken. It should produce a small area of 20-25 kt winds in the NW quadrant of the low, with seas to 7-8 8 ft. The low will likely dissipate over the weekend. A 1011 mb surface low analyzed along the monsoon trough near 11N126W is expected to move WSW and weaken to a trough by Sat. Active convection near this low will continue overnight. A cold front NW of the area is expected to reach 30N140W Sun morning, then dissipate over the far NW waters. Associated NW swell will move into the NW waters early Sun just ahead of the front and raise seas to 8-10 ft NW of a line from 30N133w to 21N140W Sun afternoon. Strong high pressure behind the front will induce the strong winds and building seas west of Baja California mentioned above. $$ Mundell