000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Oct 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 03N along 97W with widely scattered clusters of moderate to strong convection flaring within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W then across the far southern Caribbean and Panama to the Pacific waters near 08N108W, where it breaks, then resumes at 14N111W to low pres near 13.5N117W to low pres near 11N122W, where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to ITCZ near 09N124W, then continues WSW to low pres near 09N138W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the trough between 80W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 11.5N to the west of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge to the W of the area extends ESE to near 21N114W, while the typical trough is located along the W slopes of the Sierra Madres. The associated pressure gradient W of Baja California is producing moderate NW flow across the regional waters. Southerly swell from Willa currently moving through the regional waters is mixing with long period NW swell across the waters N of 25N to yield seas of 6-8 ft across the waters. These seas will gradually subside to 5-7 ft late this afternoon and then to 4-6 ft tonight. The ridge will gradually shift NE and weaken its influence across the region through Fri night, with winds diminishing very slightly. Little change in the pattern is expected through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California...Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and seas 3 to 6 ft with southerly swell currently prevail across the waters S of 25N and will continue to subside through this evening. Light and variable winds are then expected across the entire Gulf waters through Thu, with seas of 3 to 4 ft continuing across the far southern gulf waters. Light to moderate NW flow expected on Fri, and light NW flow forecast on Sat. The remnants of Willa continue to race off to the NE this afternoon and move into SW Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be seen in satellite imagery across the near shore coastal waters from Michoacan to Nayarit, generally moving northeastward. The tail end of an mid to upper level trough extends from W Texas into the area and will maintain unstable conditions across this area overnight. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong northerly drainage flow across the Gulf this morning has subsided to 15-20 kt and is expected to veer N to NE flow by this evening, then become variable for the next few days. Computer model guidance suggests the next strong northerly gap wind event will begin on Sat evening, and continue through late Mon, with gale force conditions possible Sun night through Mon evening as frontal system moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate to fresh NE flow is expected across and downstream of the Gulf through Thu morning, and maximizing late at night. Extended guidance suggests strong NE gap winds will begin late Mon night associated with the same cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough through Fri morning, while moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low near 13.5N117W is drifting NW today but is expected to move more W Wed and Thu and then accelerate to around 10-15 kt Fri. Presently, winds 20 to 25 kt and seas 8 to 9 ft are found within 90 nm of the low. As the low moves S of the ridge to the NW, the fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the NW semicircle of the low. A 1011 mb surface low continues along the ITCZ near 08N138W and is expected to move W of 140W tonight. Very active convection is occurring along and N of the ITCZ there, from 133W to beyond 140W. A 1023 mb surface high near 28N136W will meander over the far NW waters through Wed then shift NE of the area into the weekend. An area of locally strong NE to E trades and 7 to 9 ft seas will persist across the tropical waters from 08N to 14N W of 135W for another day before winds diminish slightly. NW swell producing seas of 7 to 9 ft, will continue to spread into NW portions of the area and reach from 32N130W to 22N140W tonight, then subside as fresh NE trades with 7 to 9 ft seas, develop from 10N to 24N W of 133W. $$ Stripling