000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Willa centered near 23.2N 105.5W at 24/0300 UTC moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 60 nm of the center. Heavy rainfall will continue along the Pacific coast of mainland Mexico from 105W to 107W overnight along with large swells forecast along the mainland Mexican coast, and the southern Gulf of California, between 103W and 109W, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to local forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico for specific information on heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Willa. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 03N along 92.5W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection flaring S of 08N within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W across the far southern Caribbean and NW Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then turns SW through a tropical wave at 07N96W to 07N107W, then resumes at 16N106W and continues Sw through an embedded surface low at 12.5N116W to 09N122W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W-SW through another embedded surface low at 08N136W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed E of the surface low at 12.5N116W roughly within 75 nm either side of a line from 14N111W to 10N118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm over the SW quadrant of the surface low at 08N136W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed elsewhere within 90 nm either side of a line from 07.5N80W to 09N93W to 07N104W, and within 75 nm of 18.5N104.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical Cyclones Willa. W of the Baja california Peninsula...Moderate NW flow expected on Wed was the pressure gradient relaxes. Large southerly swell from Tropical Cyclone Willa across the waters S of 25N, and long period NW swell across the waters N of 27N will both subside with 4 to 6 ft seas forecast across the waters W of Baja by Wed evening with little change then expected through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: Fresh NW winds and seas 8 to 12 ft currently across the waters S of 26N will quickly diminish and subside from the N with moderate NW wind and 4 to 6 ft forecast at sunrise Wed. Light and variable winds then expected across the entire gulf waters through Thu with seas of 3 to 5 ft continuing across the far southern gulf waters. Light to moderat NW flow expected on Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Moderate northerly flow is expected through late Wed morning. Extended guidance suggests the next strong drainage event will begin on Sat evening and continue through late Mon with gale force winds Mon evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through Thu morning. Extended guidance suggests strong NE gap winds late Mon night. Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough through Fri morning, while moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1011 mb low near 12.5N116W will drift NW for a day before turning SW and reaching near 11.5N122W late Thu. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten over the NW quadrant on Wed supporting a strong NE breeze, then the gradient will relax on Thu. A 1011 mb surface low has developed along the ITCZ near 08N136W and is expected to move W of 140W late Wed. A surface high will meander over the far NW waters through Thu then shift NE of the area. An area of locally strong NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas will persist across the tropical waters from 08N to 14N W of 135W for another day before diminishing. Large NW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach along 32N135W to 28N140W on Wed, and reach from 32N130W to 22N140W on Wed night, then subside as fresh NE trades with 7 to 9 ft seas, develop from 10N to 23N W of 131W. $$ Nelson