000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E became Tropical Storm Vicente at 2100 UTC with a center located near 13.3N 92.2W at that time. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Vicente is moving northwest at 2 kt. A turn toward the west and west-southwest, with some increase in forward speed, is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente should gradually move away from the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Numerous moderate convection is within 60 nm of the storm center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 89W and 96W. Five to ten inches of rain with local amounts to fifteen inches are expected today across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with three to six inches and local amounts to ten inches near the Pacific coast of southeastern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life- threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. Refer to the latest National Hurricane Center Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO header MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for additional details. A low pressure is located about 210 nm south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico near 14N103W with an estimated surface pressure of 1007 mb. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 17N between 100W and 106W. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow while the low moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Refer to the latest East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO header MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to just E of Tropical Storm Vicente near 13.3N 92.2W, resuming near 13N94W and continuing to a 1007 mb low pressure near 14N103W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 11N118W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Tropical Storm Vicente and the low pressure near 103W, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 15N to 19N between 107W and 110W, and from 06N to 12N W of 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Paragraph above for a discussion on Tropical Storm Vicente and a low with high chances of becoming a tropical cyclone later today or tomorrow. These two systems will be affecting the central and southern Mexico offshore waters today and through early next week. A surface ridge will meander across the offshore waters from 23N117W to 17N109W for the next few days. Gentle northwest to north flow is expected north of 20N west of 110W through early Mon. The pressure gradient is then forecast to tighten supporting moderate northerly flow west of the Baja California Peninsula through the middle of next week. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are forecast across the gulf waters through the upcoming weekend. Afterwards, winds are forecast to become light to gentle through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwesterly to westerly monsoonal flow will dominate the offshore waters through Sat night. Fresh southwest winds are expected to develop south of 05N east of 90W on Sat night with seas to 9 ft. These conditions will reach the coast of Panama early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander from 12N131W to 23N117W through the upcoming weekend. A 1008 surface low is analyzed near 11N118W, and is expected to drift west for a day or so accompanied by fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft. An area of fresh northeast trades is observed from 11N to 19N west of 132W, surrounded by seas to 10 ft in mixed swell across the discussion waters north of 11N west of 128W. These seas will gradually subside through the middle of next week. Long period southerly swell, in form of 8 ft seas, will enter the southern waters on Sat and propagate northeast to along 10N east of 120W through Sun. $$ Ramos