000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that an area of 
low pressure is centered about 90 nm south of Tehuantepec near 
14N95W. Although associated shower and thunderstorm activity is 
currently disorganized, environmental conditions are conducive 
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is 
likely to form during the next day or two. In the meantime, gale 
force winds are expected within 60 nm of the low center through 
Fri. The system is forecast to move west-northwest near or just 
offshore the coast of southern Mexico. See the East Pacific 
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO header MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 
KNHC for further details.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to the low near 14N95W to 
11N106W to 12N115W to 09N125W to 12N135W to 11N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough 
E of 93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 
17N between 93W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
06N to 14N between 129W and 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between a trough along western Mexico and 
surface ridging west of the Revillagigedo Islands will maintain 
gentle to moderate NW winds W of Baja California through early 
Monday. Seas over this region will be 4-6 ft through Sun.

Moderate to fresh NW winds with seas to 4 ft are forecast for 
the Gulf of California through Sat. Winds and seas will decrease 
Sun and Mon.

A current gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds 
to 25-30 kt, is forecast to merge with the area of low pressure 
mentioned in the Special Features section by tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong SW monsoonal flow will continue south of 
El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala through Fri with seas to 10 
ft. Near gale force winds are expected today in Guatemala waters 
as a low pressure area, possible tropical cyclone, deepens south 
of Mexico. Widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with 
this low pressure area are expected to continue across much of 
Central America and adjacent Pacific coastal waters, spreading 
well inland during the next two days. 
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak stationary front extending from 30N137W to 24N140W will 
dissipate today. Long period NW swell behind the front will 
cause seas to build to between 8 and 10 ft N of 12N W of 132W.

$$
Mundell