000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180315
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that an area of 
low pressure is centered about 90 nm south of Tehuantepec near 
14N95W. Although associated shower and thunderstorm activity is 
currently disorganized, environmental conditions are conducive 
for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm 
is likely to form during the next day or two. In the meantime, 
gale force winds are expected within 60 nm of the low center Thu 
and Fri. The system is forecast to move west-northwest near or 
just offshore the coast of southern Mexico. See the East Pacific 
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO header MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 
KNHC for further details.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to the low near 14N95W to 
11N105W to 12N114W to 09N119W to 11N130W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough 
E of 93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 
16N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
06N to 11N between 130W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The remnants of Tropical Depression Tara are located inland near 
20N103W. The pressure gradient between a trough along western 
Mexico and surface ridging west of the Revillagigedo Islands 
will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds W of Baja California 
through early Monday. Seas over this region will be 4-6 ft 
through Sun.

Moderate to fresh NW winds with seas to 4 ft are forecast for 
the Gulf of California through Sat. Winds and seas will decrease 
Sun and Mon.

A current gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds 
to 25-30 kt, is forecast to merge with the area of low pressure 
mentioned in the Special Features section by Thu evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong SW monsoonal flow will continue south of 
El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala through Fri with seas to 11 
ft. Near gale force winds are expected Thu evening in Guatemala 
waters as a low pressure area, possible tropical cyclone, 
deepens west of the area. Widespread showers and thunderstorms 
associated with this area of low pressure are expected to 
continue across much of Central America and the adjacent Pacific 
coastal waters, spreading well inland the next two days. 
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak stationary front extending from 30N136W to 24N140W will 
dissipate by Thu morning. Long period NW swell behind the front 
will cause seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft generally N of 
15N and W of 132W.

$$
Mundell