000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172210
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Satellite-derived winds and surface observations indicate that 
an elongated low pressure system is about 90 nm south of 
Guatemala. Although associated shower and thunderstorm activity 
is currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical 
depression or a tropical storm is likely to form during the next 
day or two. The system is forecast to moves generally toward the 
west-northwest near or just offshore the coast of southern 
Mexico. See the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under 
AWIPS/WMO header MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for further details.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends 09N83W to low pres near 12N92W to 
12N112W to 08N120W to 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough E of 
95W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 11N 
between 95W and 100W, and from 06N to 12N W of 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The remnants of Tropical Depression Tara located near 20N106W 
are generating scattered showers within 90 nm of Las Tres Marias 
Islands. A relaxed pressure gradient between low pressure along 
western Mexico and surface ridging extending to just west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds 
over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California through 
early Monday. Seas over the region during this period will range 
between 4-6 ft, increasing to 7 ft for the southern offshores of 
Baja late on Sun.

Moderate to fresh NW winds with seas to 5 ft are forecast for 
the Gulf of California through Sat, decreasing to light to 
gentle winds the reminder weekend into Tue next week.

A current gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds 
to 25 kt as per latest scatterometer data, is forecast to merge 
with the area of low pressure located south of Guatemala on Thu 
evening. See the Special Features section for further details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong SW monsoonal flow will prevail for the 
offshore waters of Nicaragua and Guatemala during through Fri 
with seas to 11 ft. Near gale force winds are expected on Thu 
evening over portions of the Guatemala offshores as a low 
pressure/possible tropical cyclone deepens west of the area. 
Active showers and thunderstorms associated with this area of 
low pressure are expected to continue across much of Central 
America and the adjacent Pacific coastal waters, spreading well 
inland the next few days.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating stationary front extending from 30N136W to 24N140W 
will vanish by early Thu. Long period NW swell behind the front 
will cause seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft generally N of 
15N and W of 132W.

$$
NR