000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130349 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 UTC Sat Oct 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 12N81W to 15N93W to 16N96W to 11N123W to 12N130W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 11N to 13N between 84W to 87W. Scattered moderate convection is found elsewhere from 09N to 14N between 82W and 89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 14N to 17N between 100W and 103W, from 07N to 11N between 105w and 130W and from 06N to 13N between 130W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Sergio has already degenerated into a remnant low over northwestern Mexico. However, a residual area of 8 to 9 ft seas lingers near the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula E of a line from 20N113W to 25N114W and W of 107W. This area of seas will subside below 8 ft by midday Sat as the swells disperse. Gulf of California: Strong winds and seas above 8 ft associated with Sergio have subsided. Moderate west flow is expected tonight. Strong to near gale force winds northwest winds are expected over the northern half of the basin in response to very strong high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United States. Winds could gust to gale force for the waters N of 29N. Seas to 11 ft are possible in the northern Gulf Monday, then seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by Tue evening as winds die down. Farther south, gentle to moderate westerly flow and 5 to 8 ft seas are forecast through Tue night. Persistent moist southwesterly flow along the SW coast of Mexico could fuel convection well into next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft. Winds are expected to peak near gale force on Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow will continue across the region through Tue, with widespread moderate to heavy showers expected to continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Long period cross-equatorial southwest swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area during this time frame. Looking ahead, global models are indicating development of broad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean. This area of low pressure will move west next week, enhancing convection across Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front will enter the NW waters early on Tue. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow will generally prevail until the middle of next week across the waters S of 10N with seas to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft can be expected for the waters N of the monsoon trough, S of 20N and W of 120W. $$ CAM