000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Oct 12 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC.
    
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Tropical Storm Sergio centered near 27.5N 111.9W at 1500 UTC or 
26 nm east-northeast of Santa Rosalia Mexico moving NE at 21 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained 
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 210 nm north of the center. On the forecast 
track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of Cortez 
during the next several hours and then move over northwestern 
Mexico later today or tonight. Sergio should weaken to a 
tropical depression later today, and degenerate into a remnant 
low while moving over northwestern Mexico.
Dissipation should occur on Saturday. Large swell associated 
with Sergio will spread east across the offshore waters with 
seas of 12 to 18 ft reaching the west coast of Baja today, with 
conditions improving tonight. Expect seas to subside to less 
than 8 ft early Sat. Refer to the NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for additional details.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 15N95W to 15N103W, 
then resumes near 13N123W and continues to 10N132W to 12N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm either side of 
the monsoon axis between 87W and 103W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 120W and 
138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features paragraph above for information on 
Tropical Storm Sergio.

Gulf of California: Southerly winds will increase this morning, 
with tropical storm conditions and seas to 14 ft expected 
through the afternoon. Moderate west flow is expected by late 
tonight as Sergio continues further inland. Fresh northwest 
winds are forecast north of 30N late Sun night.

Farther south, gentle to moderate westerly flow and 5 to 8 ft 
seas are forecast through Sat. Persistent moist southwesterly 
flow along the SW coast of Mexico, with coastal convection, is 
likely to continue well into next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow will continue 
across the region through the weekend, with widespread moderate 
to heavy showers expected to continue along the Pacific coast of 
Central America. Long period cross-equatorial southwest swell 
will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area.

Looking ahead, global models are indicating development of low 
pressure over the southwest Caribbean. The low will move west 
next week, enhancing convection across Panama and Costa Rica.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mixed swell seas generated from Sergio will subside through Sat 
as the pressure gradient relaxes across the waters north of 20N 
and west of 120W. A cold front will approach the NW waters on 
Mon. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow will continue across the 
southern portion with seas to 8 ft. 

$$
Ramos