331 
AXPZ20 KNHC 030330
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Oct 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.
    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Sergio is centered near 11.8N 115.8W at 0300 UTC, well 
SW of Baja California, moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 965 mb. Some modest strengthening is expected during 
the next 24 hours or so, and Sergio is forecast to be near major 
hurricane strength Wed. Numerous moderate to strong convection 
is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. 
Sergio will move NW Wed and Thu as it moves father out to sea. 
Large swell generated from Sergio will impact the Pacific coasts 
of Mexico and southern California this week. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to low pressure near 
10N87W to 10N93W to 14N100W to 13N107W, then resumes west of 
Sergio from 14N121W TO 15N126W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 84W and 
104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the 
trough axis between 124W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features above for information on the impacts of the 
remnants of Rosa and on Hurricane Sergio.

The remnant low of tropical depression Rosa has moved inland 
over NW Mexico and dissipated. Seas associated with Rosa are 
fading quickly west of Baja California and in the northern Gulf 
of California.

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, offshore northerly gap winds of 20 
to 25 kt are expected to pulse during overnight hours through 
Fri. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft during strongest winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 12N, with gentle 
to moderate winds expected on either side of the trough axis 
through Wed evening. Fresh to strong southwesterly flow and 
building seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected S of the monsoon trough 
E of 97W Thu through Sat as a broad low pressure area develops 
across the western Caribbean.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features above for information on Hurricane Sergio.

A weakening cold front is moving slowly across northern waters, 
and extends from 32N123W to 22N130W. The front will stall and 
become diffuse during the next 24-36 hours. A surface trough is 
expected west of the dying front on Wed from 0N127W to 25N131W. 
NW swell to 9-10 ft will affect the waters west of the trough 
Wed night and Thu, then merge with the large and growing area of 
mixed swell associated with Hurricane Sergio by Fri. 

$$
Mundell