080 AXPZ20 KNHC 190320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N108W. A surface trough extends from 20N111W to 13N129W, and the ITCZ continues from there to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the surface trough axis. and scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 98W and 112W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough over the Baja Peninsula will maintain gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of California overnight, become fresh to locally strong southerly winds by Wed afternoon in response to a ridge building into the area, then diminish Thu evening as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure NW of the area supports fresh NW winds W of the northern Baja peninsula, and seas are estimated to be 6-7 ft north of 27N. A trough over the western Caribbean is enhancing northerly gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with peak winds at night near 20 kt through Sun. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere, with seas generally 4-7 ft in SW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander near 10N during the next several days, with mainly gentle winds expected on either side of the trough axis. Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to near 20 kt Thu night and Fri night. Cross-equatorial SW swell reaching the coast of Central America will persist into the weekend, with sea heights mainly 5-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An elongated area of low pressure along a trough analyzed from 20N111W to 13N129W will maintain fresh SW winds south of the trough axis between 110W and 120W. This area may become better organized during the next 24 hours, but the likelihood of it eventually becoming a tropical cyclone is low as environmental conditions become less favorable over time. This disturbance may produce heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur later this week. The gradient between high pressure N of 30N and lower pressures along the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds west of 130W, with 8 ft seas west of a line from 20N140W to 15N134W to 13N140W. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Thu and Fri as the pressure gradient weakens west of 120W. An area of low pressure located near 15N123W will drift westward through Fri, and model guidance indicates seas will approach 8 ft in the NW quadrant of the low Wed through Thu. $$ Mundell