136 AXPZ20 KNHC 150404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Sep 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 08N75W to 09N90W to 10N110W to 09N120W to 14N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N E of 90W...from 06N to 14N between 100W and 113W, and from 07N to 18N west of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough is forecast to meander southwest of the Gulf of California through Sun. As a result, gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through Sun. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf due to long period southerly swell. Light variable winds will then dominate across the gulf through Wed when winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt across the northern Gulf, and to 15-20 kt across the central portion of the Gulf. A gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja California, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. Expect moderate to fresh NW winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia through Sun as the pressure gradient tightens with a ridge building in from the NW. Additional pulses of long period southerly swell will continue to impact the entrance of the Gulf of California, and the waters W of Baja California through Wed. A low pressure is forecast to develop in the Guerrero offshore waters Sat morning with seas of 8 ft in its northeast quadrant reaching close to the coast. The low will slightly deepen later on Sat and winds along the coast of Guerrero are forecast to increase to fresh to strong while seas will build to 9 ft. The low will move west of the offshores Sun morning, however winds and seas associated with it will continue to affect the offshore waters of Guerrero and Jalisco through Mon. By Wed, the low is forecast to enter the offshores of Baja California Sur with fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds will be gentle to moderate N of the trough and moderate to fresh S of the trough as a large area of disturbed weather begins to slightly deepen during the next few days. Additional pulses of cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue to impact the coast of Central America. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are affecting the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and have also reached to near the Azuero Peninsula. These marine conditions will persist today, and start to decay late on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Paul with a central pressure of 1013 mb is near 20N133W. Winds are 20 kt in the NW quadrant of the low center where seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range based on the most recent altimeter data. The remnant low of Paul is forecast to transition into a trough early today. The trough is forecast to drift westward over the next 48 hours. An area of fresh winds is expected to persist near the northern end of the trough axis with seas of 8 ft. Looking ahead, a large area of disturbed weather is centered several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally westward to west- northwestward at around 10 kt south of Mexico. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Satellite imagery indicates a band-like of moderate convection from 06N to 14N between 100W and 112W. Southerly winds are already fresh in this area. $$ NR