898 AXPZ20 KNHC 120847 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0847 UTC Wed Sep 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-tropical cyclone Paul centered near 22.3N 127.4W at 12/0900 UTC or 970 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Paul has been void of any deep convection for several hours and is no longer a tropical cyclone. A recent scatterometer pass showed 20 to 30 kt winds on the NW side of the remnant circulation, where seas of 8 to 10 ft are also still likely. These associated winds and seas will gradually diminish and subside during the next 48 hours or so. See final NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends from near 03N111W to 10N110W TO 15N108W, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is propagating out ahead of the wave from 09N to 16N between 113W and 117W. This tropical wave is likely to become diffuse and difficult to track in the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N76W to 11N95W to 13N110W to 16N115W, then resumes from 17N127W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N between 77W and 93W, from 11N to 13N between 119W and 126W, and also from 10N to 12N between 129W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, except to fresh N of 30N during the remainder of the overnight hours. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance. A surface trough extends from offshore of Cabo Corrientes from near 15N108W to 23N107W. Associated scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 20N to 24N E of the trough axis, and from 17N to 21N W of the trough axis to 121W. A gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja California, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. Winds and seas will slightly increase N of Punta Eugenia Fri night through Sat night. Marine guidance suggests winds in the 15 to 20 kt range, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Additional pulses of long period southerly swell are forecast to reach the entrance of the Gulf of California, and the waters W of Baja California this morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week into the weekend as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Another pulse of cross-equatorial southerly swell is propagating northward. This swell event is currently reaching the coasts of Mexico and Central America. Seas are already between 7 and 9 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and will build to such near the Azuero Peninsula later today into tonight. Seas are expected to further build to 9 or 10 ft across the offshore forecast waters of Panama and Costa Rica toward the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Post- tropical cyclone Paul. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the NW portion of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between tropical cyclone Paul and the ridge is producing an area of moderate to locally fresh NE mainly N of 22N W of 125W based on recent scatterometer and altimeter data. The pressure gradient is forecast to slacken as Paul continues to spin down with mainly gentle to moderate trades and 4 to 7 ft seas by the start of the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky