231 AXPZ20 KNHC 100857 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0857 UTC Mon Sep 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paul centered near 20.1N 119.9W at 10/0900 UTC or 580 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Paul is a sheared tropical cyclone with the low level center exposed. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 240 nm in the W quadrant of Paul. Paul is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Tue afternoon, becoming a post-tropical remnant low Wed night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending N of 05N along 92W, moving westward around 10 kt. Associated scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 91W and 94W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N to 19N along 107W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08.5N between 102W and 106W, and also from 09N to 13N between 105W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 12N94W to 08N110W, then resumes from 14N120W to 09N136W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 16N135W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 09N to 11N to the E of 88W, and also from 11N to 13N between 98W and 102W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Paul which is forecast to remain W of the offshore waters. Associated swells from Paul will continue to spread northward into the waters SW of the southern Baja California peninsula including near the Revillagigedo Islands through this afternoon. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf during the next several days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will allow for mainly gentle onshore winds through Wed night. The pressure gradient will tighten thereafter allowing for winds to increase to moderate W of 110W. Long period southerly swell is forecast to propagate into the offshore waters by the middle of the week, gradually subsiding by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Another pulse of cross-equatorial southerly swell arrives today and tonight, propagating NE through the remainder of the week and eventually impacting the coastline of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paul. Swells associate with Hurricane Olivia well W of the area have subsided E of 140W. A ridge drops S into the area between Olivia and Paul with mainly moderate winds. The main exception is in the N central waters N of 25N between 120W and 130W, where northerly winds have increased to fresh, ushering in northerly swell with seas of 8 to 9 ft. The swell and winds will linger through the early part of the week, gradually diminishing and subsiding through the remainder of the week. Another batch of cross-equatorial swell will cross N of the equator through the remainder of the week, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far N as 11N. $$ Lewitsky