721 AXPZ20 KNHC 100242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0242 UTC Mon Sep 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paul centered near 19.4N 119.4W at 10/0300 UTC or 570 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Paul is a sheared tropical cyclone with the low level center exposed. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection within 300 nm in the SW quadrant of Paul. Little change is forecast with the intensity of Paul through early Wed, with gradually weakening forecast thereafter. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending N of 05N along 91W, moving westward around 10 kt. Associated scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 87W and 90W, and also from 07N to 12N between 93W and 96W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N to 19N along 105W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between 98W and 105W, and also from 09N to 13N between 104W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 20N to the E of 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 12N95W to 10N110W, then resumes from 16N135W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N to the E of 84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 17N between 137W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Paul which is forecast to remain W of the offshore waters. Associated swells from Paul will continue to spread northward into the waters SW of the southern Baja California peninsula including near the Revillagigedo Islands through at least Mon. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf during the next several days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will allow for mainly gentle onshore winds through Wed night. The pressure gradient will tighten thereafter allowing for winds to increase to moderate W of 110W. Long period southerly swell is forecast to propagate into the offshore waters by the middle of the week, gradually subsiding by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Long period cross equatorial SW swell propagating between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands is subsiding. Another pulse of swell arrives Mon night through the remainder of the week, eventually impacting the coastline of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paul. Hurricane Olivia continues to move westward away from 140W. Residual swells up to 8 ft just E of 140W will subside in the next several hours. A ridge drops S into the area between Olivia and Paul with mainly moderate winds. The main exception is in the N central waters N of 26N between 120W and 130W, where northerly winds have increased to fresh, ushering in northerly swell with seas of 8 to 9 ft. The swell and winds will linger through the early part of the week, gradually diminishing and subsiding through the remainder of the week. Cross equatorial swell to the W of the Galapagos islands will subside through tonight. Another batch of swell will cross N of the equator E of 120W Mon night through the remainder of the week, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far N as 11N. $$ Lewitsky