412 AXPZ20 KNHC 092115 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2115 UTC Sun Sep 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paul centered near 18.5N 118.7W at 09/2100 UTC or 560 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection are within 210 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 118W and 124W. Slight strengthening is forecast through tonight, then the intensity should hold steady through Mon before a weakening trend begins. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N88W to 21N88W, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection with this wave over the E Pacific is mainly associated with the monsoon trough. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N104W to 18N104W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 19N between 118W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 09N76W to 10N90W to 08N103W, then resumes from 13N121W to 13N128W to 15N134W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 05N to 09N between 82W and 91W and from 06N to 12N between 91W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 18N between 135W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Paul which is forecast to remain just W of the offshore waters. Associated swells from Paul will continue to spread northward into the waters SW of the southern Baja California peninsula including near the Revillagigedo Islands through at least Mon. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 20N to 25N between 107W and 114W, including the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near the entrance of the Gulf the next several days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will allow for mainly gentle onshore winds through Mon night. The pressure gradient will tighten Tue through Thu night allowing for winds to increase to moderate W of 110W. Long period southerly swell is forecast to propagate into the offshore waters by the middle of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate. Long period cross equatorial SW swell propagating between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands is subsiding. Another pulse of swell arrives Mon night through the remainder of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paul. Hurricane Olivia centered W of the area near 21.7N 145.1W at 09/2100 UTC. Associated tropical storm force winds and convection are completely W of 140W. Associated outer winds and seas will shift completely W of 140W by tonight. See latest CPHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPCP5/WTPA35 PHFO for more details. A ridge drops S into the area between Olivia and Paul with mainly moderate winds. The main exception is in the N central waters N of 26N between 121W and 129W, where northerly winds have increased to fresh, ushering in northerly swell with seas of 8 to 9 ft. The swell and winds will linger through the early part of the week, gradually diminishing and subsiding through the remainder of the week. Cross equatorial swell to the west of the Galapagos islands will subside through tonight. Another batch of swell will cross N of the equator E of 120W Mon night through the remainder of the week, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far N as 11N. $$ Latto