514 AXPZ20 KNHC 090913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0913 UTC Sun Sep 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Olivia centered W of the area near 21.8N 142.5W at 09/0900 UTC or 720 nm ENE of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Associated tropical storm force winds and convection are now completely W of 140W. Associated outer winds and seas will shift completely W of 140W by around 24 hours. See latest CPHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPCP5/WTPA35 PHFO for more details. Tropical Storm Paul centered near 17.1N 117.5W at 09/0900 UTC or 550 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 240 nm in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere in a band between 150 nm and 300 nm in the NW semicircle, and also from 10N to 16N between 121W and 129W. Gradual strengthening of Paul is forecast through Mon afternoon, with weakening then forecast beginning Tue night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis N of 05N along 83W with the northern portion extending across western Panama and eastern Costa Rica, continuing up through the western Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave has an axis N of 03N along 100W with the northern portion extending across central Mexico, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave has an axis from 04N to 17N along 109W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. This tropical wave continues to weaken and is expected to merge with the wave to the east during the next 24 to 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 10N75W to 09N90W to 09N105W to 07N111W, then resumes from 16N131W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 86W and 91W, and also from 07N to 10N between 93W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 105W and 108W, from 14N to 16N between 108W and 110W, and also within 150 nm SE of the axis W of 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Paul which is forecast to remain just W of the offshore waters. That being said, associated swells will continue to spread northward into the waters SW of the southern Baja California peninsula including near the Revillagigedo Islands. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S and SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. In the Gulf of California, moderate southerly flow is increasing to fresh in the northern Gulf and will persist through this morning, while winds diminish over the southern portion. Winds will then diminish across the northern Gulf through the remainder of the week. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft in the northern Gulf as well as near the entrance of the Gulf during the stronger winds. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will allow for mainly gentle onshore winds through Mon night. The pressure gradient will tighten Tue through Thu night allowing for winds to increase to moderate W of 110W. Long period southerly swell is forecast to propagate into the offshore waters by the middle of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate. Long period cross equatorial SW swell propagating between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands is beginning to subside. This swell will continue to slowly subside through the remainder of the weekend, before another pulse arrives Mon through the remainder of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Olivia W of the area which continues to shift away from 140W, and on Tropical Storm Paul. A ridge drops S into the area between Olivia and Paul with mainly moderate winds. The main exception is in the N central waters where northerly winds have increased to fresh ushering in fresh northerly swell with seas of 8 to 9 ft. This swell and winds will linger through the early part of the week, gradually diminishing and subsiding through the remainder of the week. $$ Lewitsky