756 AXPZ20 KNHC 031506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1400 UTC Mon Sep 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Norman is centered near 19.3N 136.6W AT 03/1500 UTC moving W or 280 degrees at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Steady weakening is expected during the next several days. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 17N to 21N between 133W and 138W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Olivia is centered near 16.5N 114.5W at 03/1500 UTC, moving W or 270 degrees at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is found within 150 nm SE and 120 nm NW semicircles. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 110W and 120W. Olivia is forecast to intensify while moving in a WNW direction, and is forecast to reach hurricane intensity Tuesday near 16.6N 117.4W. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 89W N of 05N. Associated convection is discussed in the monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N90W to 13N100W to 13N110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 03N to 08N E of 80W, from 05N to 10N between 80W and 90W, and from 11N to 14N between 96W and 108W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough is forecast to meander between the the Gulf of California and the Baja California Peninsula through Tue. By Wed, a ridge is forecast to build across the region as tropical cyclone Olivia moves westward and away from the offshore forecast waters. However, swell generated by Olivia are forecast to propagate across the offshore forecast waters through early Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger near 10N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, and seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected through Wed. Long period SW swell will continue to propagate across the region during the next several days, building seas to 8 or 9 ft toward the end of the work week, particularly between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, then across the pacific waters of Costa Rica and Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Norman and Tropical Storm Olivia. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 22N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and hurricane Norman supports fresh to strong N to NE winds across the area N of 22N W of 130W, with seas of 8 to 11 ft due to wind waves and mixed swell generated by Norman. Swell generated by tropical cyclones Norman and Olivia will produce a large area of seas of 8 ft or greater for much of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W through tonight. $$ AL