397 AXPZ20 KNHC 020323 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 211 UTC Sun Sep 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Norman continues westward as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. At 02/0300 UT, it is centered near 16.7N 126.0W moving W or 220 degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin Sunday night and continue through early next week. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen within 60 nm NE and 75 nm SW semicircles. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 18N between 124W and 128W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Seventeen-E is located near 15.2N 111.8W at 02/0300 UTC moving WNW or 285 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical storm overnight or on Monday. Numerous moderate to strong convection is found within 30 nm NE and 75nm SW semicircles of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong is elsewhere from 13N to 17N between 111W and 115W. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 10N90W to 13N105W then resumes from 12N126W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 97W and 100W, and from 06N to 10N between 130W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough is forecast to remain over the the Gulf of California and the Baja California Peninsula through at least Tue as T.D. Seventeen-E passes S of a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Based on this weather pattern, the tropical cyclone would pass close to the offshore forecast waters through Tue evening. Swell generated by this system will propagate across the offshore forecast waters through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger near 10N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, and seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected through Monday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Norman and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E. Tropical Storm Miriam is centered W of area but it is still producing winds in the 20 to 25 kt range and seas of 10 to 14 ft for the forecast waters N of 22N W of 138W. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and hurricane Norman supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the waters N of 20N W of 120W with seas of 8 to 11 ft due to mixed swell generated by the above mentioned tropical cyclones. This swell event will produce a large area of seas of 8 ft or greater for most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W through late Mon. $$ GR