004 AXPZ20 KNHC 270944 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Miriam centered near 13.9N 129.2W at 27/0900 UTC or 1220 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Miriam continues to become better organized with numerous moderate to strong convection from 11N to 15N between 127W and 131W. Miriam is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Tuesday as it moves westward. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave along 108W has a 1008 mb low associated with it near 13N108W. Rainbands of moderate convection with isolated tstms are from 11N to 17N between 105W and 111W. There is a high chance that this area of low pressure will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 96W N of 02N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 09N between 92W and 100W. A tropical wave axis is near 108W from 04N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Please see above in special features section for more on developing low pressure and the possibility of tropical cyclone development in association to this feature. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 07N94W to 10N101W then resumes near 11N109W to 10N114W to 11N119W then from 15N134W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N E of 95W, and from 07N to 13N between 110W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends southeast from a 1038 mb high pressure near 45N148W through NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient between the high and a persistent trough across the Baja California Peninsula will continue to support moderate NW winds funneling along the coast of Baja California Norte through Fri, with seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. With low pressure over northern Mexico, light to gentle southerly flow will dominate over the Gulf of California the entire week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger along 09N/10N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light to moderate. The main exception to this will be over the Gulf of Papagayo where nocturnal offshore gap winds will pulse to fresh tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section above for information on T.S. Miriam, and for possible tropical cyclone development of broad low pressure associated with a tropical wave near 108W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between ridging across the waters north of 20N and the monsoon trough will support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through the week. $$ Ramos