927 AXPZ20 KNHC 250301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 207 UTC Sat Aug 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 85W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave axis is near 100W N of 02N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave axis is near 129W from 03N to 20N, moving W around 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave axis is near 138W from 06N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 09N86W to 12N112W to low pressure near 12N122W to 14N128W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04.5N to 13N between 83W and 89W, from 06N to 17N between 93W and 107W, and within 180 nm N and 210 nm S of the monsoon trough between 107W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1034 mb centered near 43N147W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters north of 20N. The associated pressure gradient between the high and a trough across the Baja California Peninsula will support moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds funneling along the coast of Baja through the next several days, with seas generally 4 to 5 ft. The highest seas are expected off of Baja California Norte and may briefly increase to 6 ft. Low pressure will deepen over the SW United States, with a trough extending across the Gulf of California early next week. This will help to freshen winds offshore of Baja California Norte Mon night through Tue night. Seas over this area will build to 6 to 8 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly flow will persist over the Gulf of California this weekend before diminishing early next week. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec winds and seas will increase across Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger along 09N/10N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light to moderate. The main exception to this will be over the Gulf of Papagayo, where nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh the next several nights, except fresh to strong tonight into early Sat. Seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between ridging across the northern waters and the monsoon trough will support gentle to moderate trades and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through the weekend. Active convection is expected to continue across this region for the next few days as ample low level moisture will accompany the tropical waves moving westward across the region. Wave heights will be relatively low for most of the forecast area this week. Long period swell is expected to arrive from the Southern Hemisphere this weekend. Associated seas near the Equator will build, and peak at 6-8 ft, late Sun through Mon. $$ AL