624 AXPZ20 KNHC 242139 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 83W-84W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. Associated strong convection extends to the east of the wave across Central America and the adjacent Caribbean waters. A tropical wave axis is near 98W-99W N of 02N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Associated convection is widespread and extends to the Mexican coast, and is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave axis is near 129W from 03N to 20N, moving W around 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. A weak 1012 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 12N124W and lingers behind the wave axis. A weak tropical wave axis is near 137W from 06N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. Dry air is spreading across north portions of the wave, leaving most of the associated convection confined along the Monsoon Trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N73.5W TO 10N85W TO 12.5N116W TO low pressure near 12N124W TO 14N129W TO 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04.5N to 10N between 79W and 87W, from 06N to 19N between 92W and 106W, and within 180 nm N and 210 nm S of the trough between 107W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends SE across the waters north of 20N from a 1035 mb high across the NE Pacific. The associated pressure gradient between the high and a trough across the Baja California Peninsula will support moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds funneling along the coast of Baja through the next several days, with seas generally 4 to 5 ft. The highest seas are expected off of Baja California Norte and may briefly increase to 6 ft. Winds will increase to fresh to strong offshore of Baja California Norte Mon night through Tue night with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly flow will persist over the Gulf of California. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to near 8 ft occurring across the Gulf have diminished this afternoon to less than 20 kt. Winds and seas will once again increase across Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun night due to the influence of nocturnal drainage flow. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 08N to 12N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light to moderate. The main exception to this will be over the Gulf of Papagayo, where nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh the next several nights, except fresh to strong Fri night into early Sat. Seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft downstream of Papagayo with the winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between ridging across the northern waters and the monsoon trough will support gentle to moderate trades and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through the weekend. Active convection is expected to continue across this region for the next few days as ample low level moisture will accompany the tropical waves moving westward across the region. Wave heights will be relatively low for most of the forecast area this week. Long period swell is expected to arrive from the Southern Hemisphere toward the end of this week and cause seas near the Equator to begin building over the weekend, and peaking at 6-7 ft late Sun through Mon. $$ Stripling