527 AXPZ20 KNHC 130925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A broad tropical wave is along 111W-112W with a 1012 mb surface low near the wave at 10.5N113.5W. This system is progressing W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 09N to 16N between 111W and 118W, and has begun to develop in curved bands N of 12N. Environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for this system to become better organized and potentially become a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. A tropical wave is analyzed from 05N130W TO 20N124W, and tilted NNE to SSW. This system is progressing W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 08.5N to 20N between 125W and 130W. This wave is expected to continue to shift W and follow the remnants of Kristy towards 140W during the next few days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N73W TO 11N100W TO low pres near 10.5N113.5W TO 13N118W TO 13N132W. Scattered strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N E of 86W to the coasts of Colombia and Panama. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06N to 11N between 87W and 101W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 07.5N to 13N between 130W and 139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW wind flow is expected across the waters W of the Baja California through mid week as a weak and narrow ridge extends SE into the area to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds are expected to become fresh within 90 nm of the Baja coast during the late afternoons and evenings due to daytime heating. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are generally expected across the gulf waters N of 19.5N through early Thu. Light southerly are expected S of 29.5N through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh flow expected S of 29.5N on Wed night. Light and variable winds are expected elsewhere off the Mexican coast through the middle of the week. Long period SW swell will move into the regional waters Tue and raise seas to 7 to 8 ft Wed through Thu night. Strong convection has developed along the coast and spread outward along the Mexican coastal waters out to 90 nm from Puerto Angel to just west of Acapulco, and from the Gulf of Tehuantpec SE to most of coastal Guatemala. This weather was shifting slowly SW and should diminish before sunrise. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected through Thu morning. Guidance is suggesting strong N winds on Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong E drainage flow expected tonight followed by fresh nocturnal easterly flow through Fri morning. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. Long period S to SW swell will spread into the regional waters late Mon and raise offshore seas to 7 to 8 ft on either side of the Galapagos Islands, before a strong and larger pulse of SW moves into the regional waters Tue. This next pulse of cross equatorial swell will raise seas to 7-9 ft Wed through early Thu before slowly subsiding through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kristy is centered at 22.5N134W and estimated at 1010 mb. Winds have diminished to 20 to 25 kt, with 7 to ft seas, within 90 nm over the NW quadrant. This low pres center has been moving slowly westward that past 24 hours, but is forecast to gradually accelerate to 10-15 kt over the next few days and slowly dissipate as it approaches 140W Tue evening. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is centered near 28.5N123.5W and estimated at 1014 mb. This low has become stationary overnight but is expected to begin to shift NE and weaken to a trough today. Fresh NE winds of 15-20 are occurring within 210 nm over the NW semicircle tonight and will weaken as the low opens to an open trough. Long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters S of 20N E of 120W Tue night through Thu, and then subside to less than 8 ft on Thu night. $$ Stripling