540 AXPZ20 KNHC 122222 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N111W to 18N109W with a weak 1013 mb surface low along the wave axis at 10N111W. This system is progressing W at 10 kt. Only isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the low center. Environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N125W to 19N124W with a 1011 mb low pres along the wave axis at 13N124W. This system is progressing W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed N of 07N within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N77W and extends W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N83W, then continues W through a surface low at 10N111W where it loses identity. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of lines from 06N78W to 08N97W, and from 11N93W to 12N108W. Similar convection is observed within 180 nm of 19N118W, and from 06N to 12N between 128W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected through Thu morning. Guidance is suggesting strong N winds on Thu night. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the gulf waters N of 19.5N through early Thu. Light southerly are expected S of 29.5N through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh flow expected S of 29.5N on Wed night. Gentle to moderate NW flow forecast W of the Baja California through mid week except becoming a fresh NW breeze within 90 nm of the coast during the late afternoons and evenings. Light and variable winds expected elsewhere off the Mexican coast through the middle of the week. Long period SW swell in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will reach along 12N on Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong E drainage flow expected tonight followed by fresh nocturnal easterly flow through Fri morning. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. Long period SW swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will propagate N across the waters either side of the Galapagos Islands early this week reaching the far offshore waters during the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Tropical waves paragraph above. The post-tropical remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kristy is centered at 22.5N133W and estimated at 1012 mb. Winds have diminished to 20 to 25 kt, with 7 to9 ft seas, within 75 nm over the NW quadrant. These winds are forecast to diminish to 15 to 20 kt on Mon, with the low weakening to trough on Tue into Wed. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is centered 29N124W and estimated at 1014 nm. Fresh NE winds are forecast within 240 nm over the NW semicircle through tonight with the low forecast to weaken to an open trough on Mon night. Long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters S of 13N E of 120W through Wed, and then subside to less than 8 ft on Thu. $$ Nelson