545 AXPZ20 KNHC 120932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A broad tropical wave is along 1075W and producing a large area of multi-layered clouds. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen in satellite imagery from 07N TO 14N between 101W AND 110W. A 1011 mb surface low analyzed earlier near the wave is no longer evident. This system is progressing W near 15 kt. The associated convection has shown intermittent banding features during the past 24 hours but overall coverage has diminished in the past several hours. The system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. A tropical wave is analyzed along 120W, tilted NNE to SSW. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed near the wave at 13N121W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 19N between 112W and 123W. This system is progressing W near 12 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W TO 10.5N98W TO low pres near 13N121W TO 11N124W. A trough extends from 15N135W to beyond 14.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 77W and 101W, and from 06.5N to 14.5N between 125W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is located near 28.5N124.5W, and appears as a very large low level cloud swirl in satellite imagery tonight. The low will continue to move W away from the northern waters setting up light to gentle NW winds W of the Baja California Peninsula through this morning, as a weak narrow ridge builds SE across the far outer waters. NW winds will gradually increase to moderate to locally fresh this afternoon through Wed with peak winds occurring during the late afternoon through evening hours. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across the gulf waters N of 19.5N through Tue. Light southerly are expected S of 29.5N through early Tue. Moderate to locally fresh flow expected throughout the entire gulf waters on Tue night through late Wed. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed from 27N to 29N. Light and variable winds are expected elsewhere off the Mexican coast through the middle of next week. Long period SW swell in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will spread northward across the waters S of 20N on Wed into Thu. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate nocturnal northerly drainage flow expected through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh easterly flow is expected through the middle of next week with nocturnal winds reaching briefly 20-25 kt late each evening. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. Long period SW swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will propagate N across the Galapagos Island area this weekend reaching as far north as 09N on Sun night. Afterwards, another round of strong southerly swell will move into the southern waters, with guidance suggesting 7 to 8 ft seas will spread into the area waters during the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The post-tropical remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kristy is centered at 22.5N132W at 1008 mb. Strong 20 to 30 kt winds, and 8 to 10 ft seas, prevail N and NW of the center and are forecast to gradually diminish to a moderate breeze with seas less than 8 ft by Tue night as the remnant low moves generally westerly. As mentioned above, the remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is centered 28.5N124.5W and estimated at 1009 mb. Fresh winds continue within 120 nm over the N quadrant with 7 to 9 ft seas. This low is forecast to move slowly NW through late Sun and then drift back towards the NE on Mon and lose identity. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters E of 120W through next Wed. $$ Stripling