204 AXPZ20 KNHC 090924 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm John centered near 23.7N 115.9W at 0300 UTC or 335 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. John will move NW to near 25.9N 119.9W early Friday, then weaken to a remnant low on Sat as it moves farther away from the Baja peninsula. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kristy centered near 15.8N 130.1W at 0900 UTC, moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm NE of the center. Kristy will move northward along 130W during the next 24 hours with little change in intensity. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 90W north of 06N is moving westward at 10- 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axis from 06N to 08N. A tropical wave along 104W/105W from 06N to 16N is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axis from 08N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N94W to 11N100W to 09N107W to 13N123W, then resumes from 13N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 45 nm south of the axis west of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm John. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A brief period of fresh to strong northerly winds is expected this morning, with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly nocturnal drainage flow is expected to 120 nm downstream of the gulf this evening through Fri night. Gulf of California: Large southerly swell from John with seas to 8 ft S of 24N and southerly winds to 20 kt will diminish today as the tropical storms moves NW, passing W of Baja California. John will move NW, parallel to the coast of Baja California today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday. A weak ridge will build between John and Baja California Peninsula by Fri as the cyclone moves away from the offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E nocturnal flow is expected through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 07N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the trough through the end of this week. 4-6 ft seas will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storms John and Kristy, which will affect the waters N of 10N W of 110W during the next several days. Large swell will propagate well away from John through Friday. The areas of 8 ft seas generated by swell from John and Kristy will merge later today, with a large area of 8 ft seas likely enveloping most of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W the remainder of this week. A ridge will dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The pressure gradient between John and high pressure to the NW will bring increasing winds across the NW part of the forecast area. $$ Mundell