659 AXPZ20 KNHC 082204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane John is centered near 22.0N 113.5W at 08/2100 UTC or roughly 210 nm (385 km) WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving toward the NW or 325 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and John is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, and degenerate into a remnant low late Friday or early Saturday. latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm either side of a line from 19N110W to 22N111W to 24N113W, and in an outer band located just to the south of the entrance of the Gulf of California within 30 nm either side of a line from 22N107W to 24N109W. John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday. Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and will spread northward along the W coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kristy centered near 14.7N 129.6W at 08/2100 UTC, or about 1220 nm (2260 km) WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW or 300 degrees at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Some slow strengthening is forecast through Friday before the cyclone begins to weaken over cooler sea surface temperatures causing it to weaken. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 90 nm E and SE quadrants of the center, and also from 13N to 15N between 126W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 14N130W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 87W north of 05N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm west of the axis from 07N to 09N. Another tropical wave with axis along 101W from 06N to 16N is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm W of the axis 06N to 09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to 09N79W to 08N96W to 10N102W to 16N108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of the axis between 104W and 106W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane John. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected in and up to 120 nm downstream of the gulf through Fri night. Gulf of California: Large southerly swell from John will cause seas to build to 8-12 ft S of 25N, with southerly winds increasing to 20 to 25 kt through tonight as the hurricane moves NW, passing SW of Cabo San Lucas. Tropical cyclone John will continue to move NW and parallel to the coast of Baja California through Thursday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of John will pass well to the southwest of Baja California Sur through Thursday. A weak ridge will build between John and Baja California Peninsula by Fri as the tropical cyclone moves away from the offshore forecast waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E nocturnal flow is expected through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 07N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the trough through the end of this week. 4-6 ft seas will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details regarding Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Kristy, which will affect the waters N of 10N W of 110W during the next several days. Large swell will propagate well away from Tropical Cyclone John through the end of this week as a large system. The areas of 8 ft seas generated by swell from Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Kristy will merge on Thu, with a large area of 8 ft seas likely enveloping most of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W the remainder of this week. A ridge will dominate the NW portion of the forecast area through this upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between John and high of 1034 mb to the NW will bring increasing winds of 15 to 20 kt across the NW part of the forecast region. $$ Aguirre